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Prediction for CME (2021-05-22T22:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-05-22T22:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16954/-1
CME Note: The source of this CME is a large eruption from AR 2824 (N20E15) at 21:31Z, visible in SDO AIA imagery as well as STA EUVI 195. This eruption is associated with an M1.4 flare. ARRIVAL: Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: signatures of flux rope(s) between 05/26 ~ 18 hrs to 05/27 ~ 5:00 hrs, but it may be either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. First rotation Bz north for ~3 hrs starting after ~18 hr and then ~19 hrs another structure with SN rotation in Bz. The second one displays low solar wind temperature more consistent with the magnetic cloud/flux rope expected signatures. Note that bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression, so it seems that there is interaction.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-26T11:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-05-26T06:00Z (-6.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 
Radial velocity (km/s): 545
Longitude (deg): 15W
Latitude (deg): 3N
Half-angular width (deg): 32

Notes:
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 13.95 hour(s)
Difference: 5.62 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2021-05-25T21:40Z

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